How Not to Be Wrong : The Power of Mathematical Thinking
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- cisilia gebybir izlenim paylaşıldı6 yıl önce
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Alıntılar
- skarlawnsalıntı yaptı2 yıl önce
judging a decade’s worth of mutual funds by the ones that still exist at the end of the ten years is like judging our pilots’ evasive maneuvers by counting the bullet holes in the planes that come back. - skarlawnsalıntı yaptı2 yıl öncethere’s no reason at all to expect the planes to have an equal likelihood of survival no matter where they get hit.
for example, in covid patients admitted to hospital with common shared symptoms, does it mean said symptoms were the most lethal?
- skarlawnsalıntı yaptı2 yıl önce“What assumptions are you making? And are they justified?”
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